Fine Jewelry's Price Surge: The Global Trade War, Diamond Market Manipulation & Tariffs Explained

The Market Shift No One Saw Coming

Luxury has always been synonymous with exclusivity, but in today’s economic climate, exclusivity is taking on a whole new meaning. As global trade tensions escalate, fine jewelry is caught in the crossfire. From soaring gold and gemstone prices to tariffs disrupting supply chains, the industry is facing a new reality—one that will make both sourcing and owning fine jewelry more expensive. The question isn’t whether prices will rise—it’s how high they’ll go.

The Price of Gold, Silver, and Gemstones Is Soaring

If you’ve been watching the markets, you already know: gold prices are at near-record highs. Silver and platinum aren’t far behind. While precious metals are historically safe-haven assets in times of economic uncertainty, the current price surge is being fueled by supply chain disruptions, inflation, and heightened demand from investors hedging against global instability.

For independent jewelers and collectors alike, this means higher material costs for everything from the most delicate gold chain to the most intricate, hand-carved designs. And the squeeze doesn’t stop there. The price of colored gemstones—sapphires, emeralds, and even tourmalines—has steadily climbed as mining operations struggle with labor shortages and increased environmental regulations. For those of us committed to sourcing responsibly, the challenge of securing high-quality stones at reasonable prices is becoming an art in itself.

Incoming Tariffs: A New Battle for the Jewelry Market

As if soaring material costs weren’t enough, new tariffs are set to disrupt the global jewelry trade even further. The United States is poised to impose additional duties on imports from major jewelry-manufacturing hubs, including India, China, and Thailand. These countries serve as critical centers for gemstone cutting, diamond processing, and fine jewelry production.

For American consumers, this means one thing: price hikes. Many jewelry houses that rely on global manufacturing will be forced to pass these costs on to buyers, making the aspirational and everyday luxury jewelry pieces less accessible. Those who source locally will have an edge, but even domestic production depends on imported raw materials, meaning no one is truly immune.

The Diamond Industry’s Calculated Supply Constraints

Meanwhile, in India, one of the world’s leading diamond processing centers, a strategic move is unfolding. Major players are intentionally holding back supply in an effort to drive prices higher. By slowing down manufacturing and limiting the release of polished diamonds into the market, they are creating an artificial scarcity—one that will inevitably push prices up for retailers and consumers alike.

This tactic, combined with the ongoing trade tensions and restrictions on Russian diamonds, is setting the stage for a much tighter diamond market. And while natural diamonds face supply chain turbulence, lab-grown diamonds—which have long been considered the more affordable alternative—are also seeing price increases as production costs rise globally.

What This Means for Fine Jewelry Buyers

So where does this leave us? For those looking to invest in fine jewelry, now may be the time to act. Prices are unlikely to drop in the near future, and the price of in-stock finished goods will be the best near term value. Custom and reorders will definitely have a 15% price hike at the minimum.   

For jewelers, adaptation is key. Brands that prioritize in-house production, work with trusted suppliers, and focus on direct-to-consumer models will be best positioned to weather this storm. The days of mass-market fine jewelry at bargain prices may be numbered, but for those who appreciate craftsmanship, rarity, and enduring quality, the future remains bright.

In a shifting economic landscape, one thing remains certain: true luxury is priceless.